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12-22 Araar, Abdelkrim - Expected Poverty Changes with Economic Growth and Redistribution

This paper focusses on the theoretical and computational framework in order to estimate the impact of economic growth or that of the change in inequality on poverty. During the last few years, there was a growing interest to perform such estimations and to anticipate the implication of some strategic policies, that can be adopted to meet the Millennium Development Goal (MDG, henceforth), that is to cut poverty by half. As is illustrated in this paper, estimated poverty changes may be less precise or even wrong. Precisely, this bad estimation occurs when the distributive changes are non-marginal, whereas the used approach is based on the assumption of marginal changes. In an other case, and where the estimation is implicitly based on a parameterized model of the income distribution, results may be less precise when the predicted distribution cannot reproduce perfectly that derived with the sample. In this study, by using some popular methods, we have used some household surveys of the African countries, as well as, fictive data to show the error size that can occur. Further, we propose a new numerical method to allow to estimate accurately the impact of distributive changes on poverty.

 

12-21 Malekan, Sara; Dionne, Georges - Securitization and Optimal Retention under Moral Hazard

Securitization is one of the most important innovations in financial markets. It is a process of converting illiquid loans that cannot be sold readily to third-party investors into liquid securities and selling them to dispersed investors. As a result, securitization improves liquidity in capital markets by allowing originators to remove the issued loans from its balance sheet and use the proceeds for other purposes or even to originate new loans. In spite of all its advantages, securitization is often suspected of being one of the main reasons for the recent financial crisis. One concern that is frequently raised in the literature is that securitization leads to moral hazard in lender screening and monitoring. By selling loans to investors and removing them from their books, banks have a lesser incentive to carefully evaluate and monitor borrowers’ credit quality to ensure that they can repay the loans, because the risk of delinquencies falls on investors rather than lenders. One problem in the literature is that the analysis of securitization is very general and suffers from a lack a specific security design analysis under asymmetric information. We address the moral hazard problem using a principal-agent model where the investor is the principal and the lender is the agent. We show that the optimal contract must contain a retention clause in the presence of moral hazard.

12-20 Fagart, Marie-Cécile; Fluet, Claude - The First-Order Approach when the Cost of Effort is Money

We provide sufficient conditions for the first-order approach in the principal-agent problem when the agent’s utility has the non-separable form u(y - c(a)) where y is the contractual payoff and c(a) is the money cost of effort. We first consider a decision-maker facing prospects which cost c(a) with distributions of returns y that depends on a. The decision problem is shown to be concave if the primitive of the cumulative distribution of returns is a convex function, a condition we call Concavity of the Cumulative Quantile (CCQ). Next we apply CCQ to the distribution of outcomes (or their likelihood-ratio transforms) in the principal-agent problem and derive restrictions on the utility function that validate the first-order approach. We also discuss a stronger condition, log-convexity of the distribution, and show that it allows binding limited liability constraints, which CCQ does not.
 

12-19 Grass, Gunnar - Model Implied Credit Spreads

I propose a new measure of credit risk, model implied credit spreads (MICS), which can be extracted from any structural credit risk model in which debt values are a function of asset risk and the payout ratio. I implement MICS assuming a barrier option framework nesting the Merton (1974) model of capital structure. MICS are the increase in the payout to creditors necessary to offset the impact of an increase in asset variance on the option value of debt. Endogenizing asset payouts, my measure (i) predicts higher credit risk for safe firms and lower credit risk for firms with high volatility and leverage than a standard distance to default (DD) measure and (ii) clearly outperforms the DD measure when used to predict corporate default or to explain variations in credit spreads.

12-18 Behrens, Kristian; Murata, Yasusada - Globalization and Individual Gains from Trade

We analyze the impact of globalization on individual gains from trade in a general equilibrium model of monopolistic competition featuring product diversity, pro-competitive effects and income heterogeneity between and within countries. We show that, although trade reduces markups in both countries, its impact on variety depends on their relative position in the world income distribution: product diversity in the lower income country always expands, while that in the higher income country may shrink. When the latter occurs, the richer consumers in the higher income country may lose from trade because the relative importance of variety versus quantity increases with income. Using data on GDP per capita and population, as well as on the U.S. income distribution, we illustrate our theoretical results in two different contexts: the hypothetical bilateral trade liberalization between the U.S. and 188 countries; and the historical sequence of U.S. free trade agreements since 1985.

12-17 Mirman, Leonard J.; Santugini, Marc - Consumption and Investment in Stochastic Learning Games

We study investment and consumption decisions in a stochastic learning dynamic game. To that end, we extend the Great Fish War model of Levhari and Mirman (1980) to a learning environment in which agents not only extract a resource for consumption, but also invest to improve the future stock. Although the characterization of an infinite-horizon game with Bayesian dynamics (and without the assumption of adaptive learning) is generally intractable, we characterize the unique Cournot-Nash equilibrium for general distributions of the random variables. The addition of learning to a stochastic environment is shown to have a profound effect on the equilibrium.

12-16 Clavet, Nicholas-James; Duclos, Jean-Yves - Le financement des services de garde des enfants: effets sur le travail, le revenu des familles, et les finances publiques

Le financement public des services de garde (SDG) est au cœur d’objectifs multiples au Québec et ailleurs au Canada. Cet article rapporte l’impact des trois mesures principales de financement public (le crédit d’impôt provincial, la déduction d’impôt fédérale, et les subventions directes aux Centres de la petite enfance — les CPE) sur le revenu des familles, la participation des femmes au marché du travail, et sur les finances publiques québécoises et canadiennes. Contrairement à la littérature canadienne existante, cet impact est estimé à l’aide d’un modèle structurel d’offre de travail qui incorpore explicitement les préférences travail/loisir des familles. Ce modèle tient aussi compte du système fiscal et de transfert du Québec et du Canada, de l’effet des coûts fixes à travailler, de la variabilité des SDG et de leurs coûts, ainsi que la distribution des caractéristiques socio-démographiques des familles québécoises. Les mesures de financement des SDG accroissent globalement et considérablement le revenu des familles après impôts, transferts et frais de garde; elles ont aussi un impact plus marqué sur le revenu et sur le travail des femmes monoparentales que sur celui des femmes en couple. Leur abolition entraînerait des économies substantielles sur le plan des finances publiques provinciales, mais affecterait toutefois peu celles du gouvernement fédéral.

12-15 Dionne, Georges; Santugini, Marc - Entry, Imperfect Competition, and Futures Market for the Input

We analyze firms’ production and hedging decisions under imperfect competition with potential entry. Specifically, we consider an oligopoly industry producing a homogeneous output in which risk-averse firms incur a sunk cost upon entering the industry, and, then, compete in Cournot with one another. Each firm faces uncertainty in the input cost when making production decision, and has access to the futures market to hedge its random cost. We provide two sets of results. First, we show that there exists a unique equilibrium in which, in contrast to previous results in the literature, production and output price depend on the distribution of the spot price and risk aversion, i.e., there is no separation when the firms have access to the futures market. Second, we study the effect of access to the futures market on entry, production, and prices. The effect of access to the futures market on the number of firms is ambiguous depending on the value of the futures price and the parameters of the model. We also show that hedging induces the risk-averse firm to produce more, while speculating reduces production.

12-14 Dionne, Georges; Li, Jingyuan; Okou, Cedric - An Extension of the Consumption-based CAPM Model

We extend the Consumption-based CAPM (C-CAPM) model to representative agents with different risk attitudes. We first use the concept of expectation dependence and show that for a risk averse representative agent, it is the first-degree expectation dependence (FED) rather than the covariance that determines C-CAPM’s riskiness. We extend the assumption of risk aversion to prudence and propose the measure of second-degree expectation dependence (SED) to obtain the values of asset price and equity premium. These theoretical results are linked to the equity premium puzzle. Using the same dataset as in Campbell (2003), the estimated measures of relative risk aversion from FED and SED approximations are much lower than those obtained in the original study and correspond to the theoretical values often discussed in the literature. The theoretical model is then generalized to higher-degree risk changes and higher-order risk averse representative agents.

12-13 Dessy, Sylvain; Orset, Caroline; Yémélé Kana, Legrand - The Global Fight against Child Trafficking: How Can It Be Won ?

We study how countries can coordinate their national action plans so as to fight global child trafficking. As both the demand and supply of trafficked children are transboundary in scope, international cooperation may be necessary to mitigate cross-country externalities. We show that specialization is the main feature of international cooperation. We also show that the pattern of specialization depends only on the level of economic development of state-parties. In particular, specialization leads to asymmetric national action plans when state-parties have different levels of economic development: the governments of poorer countries specialize on fighting the supply of trafficked children from their territories, while the governments of richer countries specialize on fighting the demand arising within their territories.

12-12 Bouakez, Hafedh; Eyquem, Aurélien - Government Spending, Monetary Policy, and the Real Exchange Rate

A robust prediction across a wide range of open-economy macroeconomic models is that an unanticipated increase in public spending in a given country appreciates it currency in real terms. This result, however, contradicts the findings of a number of recent empirical studies, which instead document a significant and persistent depreciation of the real exchange rate following an expansionary government spending shock. In this paper, we rationalize the findings of the empirical literature by proposing a small-open-economy model that features three key ingredients: incomplete and imperfect international financial markets, sticky prices, and a not-too-aggressive monetary policy. The model predicts that in response to an unexpected increase in public expenditures, the effective long-term real interest rate falls, causing the real exchange rate to depreciate. We establish this result both analytically, within a special version of the model, and numerically for the more general case.

12-11 Dionne, Geoges; Li, Jingyuan - Comparative Ross Risk Aversion in the Presence of Mean Dependent Risks

This paper studies comparative risk aversion between risk averse agents in the presence of a background risk. Although the literature covers this question extensively, our contribution differs from most of the literature in two respects. First, background risk does not need to be additive or multiplicative. Second, the two risks are not necessary mean independent, and may be conditional expectation increasing or decreasing. We show that our order of cross Ross risk aversion is equivalent to the order of partial risk premium, while our index of decreasing cross Ross risk aversion is equivalent to decreasing partial risk premium.  These results generalize the comparative risk aversion model developed by Ross (1981) for mean independent risks. Finally, we show that decreasing cross Ross risk aversion gives rise to the utility function family belonging to the class of n-switch utility functions.

12-10 Cosset, Jean-Claude; Martineau, Charles; Samet, Anis - Do Political Institutions Affect the Choice of the U.S. Cross-Listing Venue?

We study the impact of political institutions on foreign firms’ choice of their U.S. cross-listing venue. Using two measures of political institutions (an index of political rights and a political constraint index) and controlling for various firm-level and country-level characteristics, we show that foreign firms from countries with weak political institutions are more likely to cross-list in the U.S. via the over-the-counter market and less likely to opt for an exchange-listed program (i.e., New York, Nasdaq, and AMEX).

12-09 Chaigneau, Pierre - The Effect of Risk Preferences on the Valuation and Incentives of Compensation Contracts

We use a comparative approach to study the incentives provided by different types of compensation contracts, and their valuation by risk averse managers, in a fairly general setting. We show that concave contracts tend to provide more incentives to risk averse managers, while convex contracts tend to be more valued by prudent managers. This is because concave contracts concentrate incentives where the marginal utility of risk averse managers is highest, while convex contracts protect against downside risk. Thus, prudence can contribute to explain the prevalence of stock-options in executive compensation. We also present a condition on the utility function which enables to compare the structure of optimal contracts associated with different risk preferences.

12-08 Chaigneau, Pierre - Explaining the Structure of CEO Incentive Pay with Decreasing Relative Risk Aversion

It is established that the standard principal-agent model cannot explain the structure of commonly used CEO compensation contracts if CRRA preferences are postulated. However, we demonstrate that this model has potentially a high explanatory power with preferences with decreasing relative risk aversion, in the sense that a typical CEO contract is approximately optimal for plausible preference parameters.

12-07 Chaigneau, Pierre - The Optimal Timing of CEO Compensation

This paper extends a standard principal-agent model of CEO compensation by modeling the progressive attenuation of information asymmetries between firm insiders and shareholders in continuous time. In this setting, we show that the optimal timing of compensation results from a tradeoff between the progressive accumulation of noise in the stock price process and the progressive resolution of information asymmetries. Since all points in the stock price process are incrementally informative about the CEO action, we also show that the whole stock price process should a priori be used for compensation purposes. This may however lead CEOs to inefficiently divert resources to repeatedly manipulate the stock price, which is why it might be optimal to use only a few points in the stock price process instead.

12-06 Bouvard, Matthieu; Chaigneau, Pierre; de Motta, Adolfo - Transparency in the Financial System: Rollover Risk and Crises

The paper presents a theory of optimal transparency in the financial system when financial institutions have short-term liabilities and are exposed to rollover risk. Our analysis indicates that transparency enhances the stability of the financial system during crises but may have a destabilizing effect during normal economic times. Thus, the optimal level of transparency is contingent on the state of the economy, with the regulator increasing disclosure in times of crises. Under this policy, however, an increase in disclosure signals a deterioration of the economy’s fundamentals, so the regulator has incentives to withhold information ex-post. In that case, the regulator may have to commit ex-ante to a degree of transparency which trades off the frequency and magnitude of financial crises. The analysis also considers the possibility that financial institutions, in an attempt to deal with rollover risk, either diversify their risks or increase the liquidity of their balance sheets.

12-05 Chaigneau, Pierre - On the Value of Improved Informativeness

One of the main predictions of principal-agent theory, the “informativeness principle”, is often violated in practice. We propose an explanation that emphasizes the role played by the change in the form of the optimal contract that follows an improvement in informativeness. We show that the overall gains from a less noisy performance measure emanate from two sources: the direct effect of a change in the volatility of the performance measure, and the effect of the induced change on the form of the optimal compensation contract. We emphasize that the direct effect can either largely under-estimate or largely overtimate the overall gains from improved informativeness, and we show that these gains can even be nil in some instances.

12-04 Dionne, Georges; Michaud, Pierre-Carl; Pinquet, Jean - A Review of Recent Theoretical and Empirical Analyses of Asymmetric Information in Road Safety and Automobile Insurance

Road safety policies and automobile insurance contracts often use incentive mechanisms based on traffic violations and accidents to promote safe driving. Can these mechanisms improve road safety efficiently? Do they reduce asymmetric information between drivers and insurers and regulators? In other words, is there residual asymmetric information in observed distributions of accidents and infractions? We answer these questions in this chapter by reviewing recent theoretical and empirical results based on various data and methodologies. We present recent tests related to the identification of residual asymmetric information in road safety management and in automobile insurance contracting. We also propose a theoretical analysis of the foundations of point-record driver’s licenses observed around the world.

12-03 Dessy, Sylvain; Gohou, Gaston; Vencatachellum, Désiré - Foreign Direct Investments in Africa's Farmlands: Threat or Opportunity for Local Populations ?

We study the welfare effects of government-backed FDIs in Africa’s farmlands. We build an occupational choice model featuring four mechanisms driving these effects. First, local farming is subject to social arrangements prescribing that farmers share their crop surplus with kin. Second, proceeds from land investment deals are invested to make modern inputs affordable to local farmers. Third, these deals cause some farmers to shift to wage employment. Fourth, they also entrench export-oriented agriculture, at the expense of local markets. We show that three conditions are sufficient for such deals to make local people better off: (i) the state has a high capacity and willingness to negotiate deals that benefit local people; (ii) these deals create enough jobs; (iii) wage employment make displaced farmers better off. Fulfilling these three conditions, however, may conflict with the interests of profit-maximizing foreign investors.

12-02 Dessy, Sylvain; Pallage, Stéphane; Vencatachellum, Désiré - The Political Economy of Social Inclusion

We build a political economy model of state policy choice highlighting the challenges to breaking barriers to the adoption of inclusive policies in Africa. We highlight necessary and sufficient conditions for a political leader to gain from implementing exclusive policies: (i) Implementing inclusive policies must be risky; (ii) the political leader must have adequate access to an overseas’ financial safe haven as a technology for protecting the spoils from implementing exclusive policies, or investing the looted funds in the domestic economy must sufficiently contribute to mitigate the risk of a revolution. Our results suggest that breaking barriers to inclusive policies in Africa is not an easy task. Bans on international money-laundering schemes may not be sufficient if domestic money laundering is easy and sufficiently discrete.

12-01 Fesselmeyer, Eric; Mirman, Leonard J.; Santugini, Marc - Spreading an Diversifying Risk: Limiting Cases

We study the effects of spreading and diversifying risk. We show that perfect risk spreading (i.e., when the number of investors goes to infinity) yields no equilibrium. However, when combining perfect risk spreading with perfect risk diversification (i.e., when the number of assets goes to infinity), there exists an equilibrium in which risk is shared. Moreover, the risk premium does not go to zero and financial prices depend on both risk and risk-aversion, i.e., concern for risk does not disappear in the limit. Hence, limiting cases with risk-averse investors yield results that differ greatly from models with risk-neutral investors.