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16-04 Fortin, Pierre - A Stable 4% Inflation Could Get Canadians One Half Million More Jobs

The Inflation-Control Agreement between the Government and the Bank of Canada is reviewed and renewed every five years. In this paper, I propose that the upcoming 2016 agreement increase the inflation target by 2 percentage points, from the current 2% to 4%. I first note that the room to stimulate economic activity and employment when the Bank of Canada judges that it is needed has narrowed dangerously in the past 25 years. I argue that the only fully effective means of freeing the Bank from the operational straightjacket into which it has fallen is setting the inflation target at 4% instead of 2%. I then report of evidence that the strong resistance of Canadian employers and employees to money wage cuts generates a significant permanent trade-off between inflation and unemployment at the macro level when inflation is less than 5%. Combining these two strands of observations, I conclude that moving to 4% inflation would generate about one half million more permanent jobs for Canadians and, over time, add some $50 billion per year to domestic income.

 

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16-03 Huesca, Luis; Llamas, Linda - Testing for pro-poorness of growth through the tax system: The Mexican case

This research provides a detailed examination of the redistributive effect achieved by the tax system including total taxes and cash transfers targeting the contributors and households in the period 2002-2008-2014 for the Mexican regions and the country. We measure the impact on income growth through the tax system according to each fiscal rules for the corresponding years using pre and post fiscal conditions. We answer the next question: considering the economic growth on per capita incomes in the Mexican States, will the impact of the Mexican tax system improve income distribution? That is, by all means pro-poor?. Our methodology allows to detect if taxes and benefits can really induce an improvement of income growth on the regions captured by its wellbeing and economic growth conditions. We outlined relevant theoretical issues on public fiscal policies concerning this work and lastly, we proceed with an empirical application.

 

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16-02 Duclos, Jean-Yves; Tiberti, Luca - Multidimensional poverty indices: A critical assessment

This paper reviews and assesses issues involved in the measurement of multidimensional poverty, in particular the soundness of the various “axioms” and properties often imposed on poverty indices. It argues that some of these properties (such as those relating poverty and inequality) may be sound in a unidimensional setting but not so in a multidimensional one. Second, it addresses critically some of the features of recently proposed multidimensional poverty indices, in particular the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) recently put forward by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). The MPI suffers from several unattractive features that need to be better understood (given the prominence of the index). The MPI fails in particular to meet all of three properties that one would expect multidimensional poverty indices to obey: continuity, monotonicity, and sensitivity to multiple deprivation. Robustness techniques to address some of the shortcomings of the use of such indices are briefly advocated.

 

 

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16-01 Goussé, Marion; Jacquemet, Nicolas; Robin, Jean-Marc - Marriage, Labor Supply, and Home Production: A Longitudinal Microeconomic Analysis of Marriage, Intra-Household Bargaining and Time Use Using the BHPS, 1991-2008

We extend the search-matching model of the marriage market of Shimer and Smith (2000) to allow for labor supply, home production, match-specific shocks and endogenous divorce. We study nonparametric identification using panel data on marital status, education, family values, wages, and market and non market hours, and we develop a semiparametric estimator. We estimate how much sorting results from time use specialization or homophilic preferences. We estimate how equilibrium marriage formation affects the wage elasticities of market and non market hours. We estimate individuals’ willingness to pay for marriage and quantify the redistributive effect of intra-household resource sharing.

 

 

 

Centre interuniversitaire sur le risque, les politiques économiques et l'emploi
ESG UQAM, Université du Québec à Montréal, C.P. 8888, Succ. Centre-Ville, Montréal (Québec) CANADA H3C 3P8
Madame Hélène Diatta  | Téléphone : 514 987-6181 | Télécopieur : 514 987-4707 | Courriel : diatta.helene@uqam.ca